Federal election 2022

Liberal MP Michael Sukkar was leading by a wafer-thin margin of just 55 votes in the outer-suburban seat of Deakin as the postal-vote count continued Tuesday morning following Saturday’s federal election.

The former assistant treasurer has the edge over Labor’s Matt Gregg in the two-party preferred count, but has suffered a damaging swing of 6 per cent against his primary following the drubbing his party copped in Victoria at the poll. The narrow margin means it’s still too early to call the seat.

Michael Sukkar is leading – but just barely – in Deakin. Credit:James Brickwood

In the neighbouring seat of Menzies, Liberal Keith Wolahan has the count presently in his favour by 1.1 per cent. Closer to the city centre, Labor’s Josh Burns now looks likely to retain the seat of Macnamara that was under threat from the Greens.

Burns, a first-term MP, looked like he would lose his seat on election night after the Greens’ Steph Hodgins-May enjoyed a 12 per cent swing to her primary vote, but postal votes began trending in his favour on Monday.

With 68 per cent of the votes counted on Tuesday morning, Burns was leading by 4.4 per cent on a two-party preferred count. Although Burns’ primary lifted by 1.4 per cent, he suffered a 0.5 per cent swing against him on a two-candidate preferred count.

The Liberal Party has been decimated in Victoria, and looks set to hold just three seats in urban Melbourne – Deakin, Menzies and Aston. The latter will be its safest metropolitan seat, with Alan Tudge holding on just a 2.9 per cent margin.

According to Nine’s model, there are seven seats in doubt across the country, but Labor is likely to win at least 76 seats. They are Bennelong and Gilmore in NSW, Deakin and Macnamara in Victoria, Brisbane and Ryan in Queensland and Sturt in South Australia.

Of those, Labor is ahead in Bennelong and Macnamara. If the party holds its lead in both it will have a working majority on the floor of the House of Representatives, even after appointing a speaker.

Nine’s predictive model has the Liberals ahead in Gilmore, Sturt and Deakin. The Greens believe they can win the seats of Brisbane and Ryan.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he and his colleagues were “pretty confident that we will get to a majority [in the House of Representatives] in our won right”.

“But that’s not yet assured,” he said. “There’s still two or three bouncing around a little bit more than we would like. But I think the most likely outcome is a narrow majority. We’ll know more in the coming days, obviously.

“My colleagues tell me that 76 or 77 [seats] is within reach.”

With Broede Carmody

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